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The World Bank has forecasted a rise in poverty levels in Nigeria by 2027, projecting an increase of 3.6 percentage points over a five-year period. This was revealed in its latest Africa Pulse report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, DC.
Despite some economic growth, especially in Nigeria’s non-oil sector in the final quarter of 2024, the report warns that Nigeria’s status as a resource-rich yet fragile nation presents a grim outlook for poverty reduction. The country is among a group of Sub-Saharan African nations where poverty is expected to rise, in contrast to the general trend of poverty reduction in other parts of the continent.
The report highlights that Sub-Saharan Africa currently holds the world’s highest extreme poverty rate, with 80% of the global 695 million extremely poor people residing in the region as of 2024. Half of the 560 million extreme poor in Sub-Saharan Africa live in just four countries, including Nigeria.
Unlike non-resource-rich nations that are benefitting from rising agricultural commodity prices and showing better progress in poverty alleviation, countries dependent on resources like oil—particularly those facing fragility or conflict—are struggling. The World Bank attributes this trend to poor governance and fiscal management in these countries.
In 2024, the average poverty rate among resource-rich, fragile countries stood at 46%, significantly higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich nations. The report concludes by emphasizing the need for Nigeria and similar nations to improve fiscal policies and foster stronger trust and accountability between governments and citizens to reverse this trend.
